Ballot measures & Propositions 1B-1E & Bond measures & Public opinion 24 Oct 2006 09:09 pm
New Proposition 1A-1E polling numbers
Robert Salladay of the Los Angeles Times and Shane Goldmacher at The California Observer blog today both cite a new poll by J. Moore Methods gauging support for Propositions 1A-1E.
The poll shows all five measures are holding on to slim majority support or close to it. Proposition 1A has the highest support at 56-21%. Proposition 1E follows close behind at 55-31%. The other three bonds don’t fare quite as well. Proposition 1C is at 54-32%, 1D is at 52-34%, and 1B looks least likely to pass, with 50-36% support.
As Bill Bradley notes on his blog, the fact that the measures are stabilized at or slightly above 50% support is no guarantee of success. He cites what happened to the Rob Reiner-sponsored Proposition 82, which would have funded preschool for every child in California, and to Proposition 81, the 2006 library bond measure. Both looked like sure bets to pass according to most polls taken before the election; both failed to pass. (Proposition 82 in particular lost by a startlingly wide margin, 61-39%).
As Bradley observes:
While the measures are there to be won, they are also in dangerous territory. Finance-related initiatives that are hovering at or around 50% two weeks before a California election usually lose.