Propositions 1B-1E & Bond measures & Proposition 84 & Public opinion 06 Nov 2006 09:33 am
Field Poll on infrastructure bonds
According to an article in Saturday’s San Francisco Chronicle, the big infrastructure bonds appear on their way to victory. The Chronicle and several other major newspapers cite the most recent Field Poll results.
A quick look at the poll numbers:
- Proposition 1B: 56-28% yes
- Proposition 1C: 51-30% yes
- Proposition 1D: 56-29% yes
- Proposition 1E: 53-27% yes
- Proposition 84: 51-31% yes
The one caveat to keep in mind from news analysis and political observers that we have emphasized over the past month is that while it is good that all of the bonds are polling above 50%, there is no guarantee that they will pass unless they are well above 50%.
Proposition 1B and 1D appear very well-positioned to clear the hurdle, but the rest are still up in the air. Nonetheless, the recent spate of stumping for the propositions by the governor and other candidates and a truckload of television ads urging a “yes” vote appear to be on their way to paying off.
In addition, as pollsters have pointed out in recent news articles, the number of people expected to vote “no” on the measures has not expanded significantly since the last time polls were taken on the bonds — increasing the likelihood that the measures will pass, and get implemented.
Unless, of course, Proposition 90 passes, in which event all bets are off.