According to an article in Saturday’s San Francisco Chronicle, the big infrastructure bonds appear on their way to victory. The Chronicle and several other major newspapers cite the most recent Field Poll results.

A quick look at the poll numbers:

• Proposition 1B: 56-28% yes

• Proposition 1C: 51-30% yes

• Proposition 1D: 56-29% yes

• Proposition 1E: 53-27% yes

• Proposition 84: 51-31% yes

The one caveat to keep in mind from news analysis and political observers that we have emphasized over the past month is that while it is good that all of the bonds are polling above 50%, there is no guarantee that they will pass unless they are well above 50%.

Proposition 1B and 1D appear very well-positioned to clear the hurdle, but the rest are still up in the air. Nonetheless, the recent spate of stumping for the propositions by the governor and other candidates and a truckload of television ads urging a “yes” vote appear to be on their way to paying off.

In addition, as pollsters have pointed out in recent news articles, the number of people expected to vote “no” on the measures has not expanded significantly since the last time polls were taken on the bonds — increasing the likelihood that the measures will pass, and get implemented.

Unless, of course, Proposition 90 passes, in which event all bets are off.

Proposition 84’s biggest obstacle to passing is not negative ads or well-funded opposition (there is no organized opposition). According to a Scripps Howard News article yesterday, it’s that same phenomenon that keeps popping up with all of the bond measures on the ballot: voters see the price tag and shy away, and all of the bond measures cancel one another out.

The article cites the two most recent polls on Proposition 84 (Field Poll and PPIC) to demonstrate that the measure is struggling at anywhere between 40% and 50% support, which is not likely to be a strong enough showing for passage, despite endorsements from Arnold Schwarzenegger, Dianne Feinstein, Antonio Villaraigosa, and other heavyweights.

An October 20 article in the Capital Press Agricultural Weekly, an industry newspaper, notes that Proposition 84 would have more support from California agricultural interests if it were more of a water resource measure and less of a parks-and-recreation measure. Nonetheless, the measure would generate an estimated 1 million to 1.2 million acre feet of water statewide, and it would provide $100 million for the restoration of salmon fisheries on the San Joaquin River below Fresno’s Friant Dam.

Bill Bradley, looking at a poll just released by the Public Policy Institute of California, observes on his blog this morning that the infrastructure measures are in trouble. The governor and many major state lawmakers and advocacy groups have gone up and down the state promoting and stumping for the measures. But none of the measures has increased its support in any significant way.

Support for Proposition 1B is stuck at 51-38%. Proposition 1C is at 56-34%, Proposition 1D is at 51-39%, and Proposition 1E is at 53-36%. Proposition 84, the water safety initiative, is well below the margin needed for passage, with 42% supporting it and 43% opposing it. As Bradley points out, even worse news for the measure’s supporters is that support for the measures among Democrats and independent voters, who are traditional supporters of bond expenditures, is far short of what it should be.

The PPIC polling data seem to suggest that voters are supportive of the concept of bond expenditures in general, but wary of the specific measures that appear on this year’s ballot. 58% of likely voters say that the $43 billion total that the bond measures, if implemented, would require is too costly. Focusing specifically on Proposition 1D, 87% of likely voters consider state spending on improvements in school facilities to be important for their individual communities, but support for that measure is essentially unchanged from last month.

A George Skelton piece in today’s Los Angeles Times notes that despite Schwarzenegger’s popularity, and despite several carefully orchestrated appearances at charter schools and Delta levees, he hasn’t been able to drum up much support for the infrastructure measures. Skelton surmises that if the bonds flop at the polls, it could take some of the luster off the projected Schwarzenegger re-election landslide.