According to an article in Saturday’s San Francisco Chronicle, the big infrastructure bonds appear on their way to victory. The Chronicle and several other major newspapers cite the most recent Field Poll results.

A quick look at the poll numbers:

• Proposition 1B: 56-28% yes

• Proposition 1C: 51-30% yes

• Proposition 1D: 56-29% yes

• Proposition 1E: 53-27% yes

• Proposition 84: 51-31% yes

The one caveat to keep in mind from news analysis and political observers that we have emphasized over the past month is that while it is good that all of the bonds are polling above 50%, there is no guarantee that they will pass unless they are well above 50%.

Proposition 1B and 1D appear very well-positioned to clear the hurdle, but the rest are still up in the air. Nonetheless, the recent spate of stumping for the propositions by the governor and other candidates and a truckload of television ads urging a “yes” vote appear to be on their way to paying off.

In addition, as pollsters have pointed out in recent news articles, the number of people expected to vote “no” on the measures has not expanded significantly since the last time polls were taken on the bonds — increasing the likelihood that the measures will pass, and get implemented.

Unless, of course, Proposition 90 passes, in which event all bets are off.

Wondering why you’ve not heard much about Proposition 88 lately? Or anything at all? While Governor Schwarzenegger and other California political bigshots are cruising up and down the state stumping hard for Proposition 1D, the education infrastructure bond, what you’re hearing on Proposition 88, the other education-related measure on the ballot, is the sound of crickets.

Proposition 88 would impose a $50 parcel tax on most private property in the state to fund $470 million in school improvement programs. $85 million of that total would go to facility lease costs, but according to the state Legislative Analyst’s Office, conditions on the use of the money would mean that only 140 schools statewide would ever get the facility lease funds.

A post on the SFGate politics blog points out that major California education groups didn’t like Proposition 88 competing with Proposition 1D from the beginning, and they formed an unlikely alliance with groups like the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association in opposition to the measure. The effect of the education groups’ opposition was, in the words of the post, to seal the measure’s doom.

And that was before the proposition’s biggest financial backer, Silicon Valley philanthropic group EdVoice, pulled $500,000 from the Proposition 88 campaign and gave it instead to Proposition 1D. Initially, venture capitalist John Doerr (who has given close to $1 million to the backers of proposition 87) and Netflix CEO Reed Hastings gave money to the committees supporting the measure, but they stopped donating once it became apparent that the measure was going to lose, according to an October 31 article in the Orange County Register.

The most recent polls on Proposition 88 show it with anywhere between 42 and 52% support. Nonetheless, as one opponent of the measure was quoted in the Orange County Register article as saying, “Even dead people win elections. It would be foolhardy to assume it’s going to fail.”

A new public opinion survey by KTVU-TV and the Field Poll shows continued deteriorating support for three of the major propositions:

• Proposition 85: 46-43% yes

• Proposition 86: 45-45% yes

• Proposition 87: 44-40% no

If Proposition 87 loses in spite of all of the money and political capital that have spent to promote it, including months of TV ads and numerous public appearances by Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and assorted celebrities (everyone from Julia Roberts to Robert Redford to Eva Longoria), it will be one of the big stories of the election year.

Proposition 84’s biggest obstacle to passing is not negative ads or well-funded opposition (there is no organized opposition). According to a Scripps Howard News article yesterday, it’s that same phenomenon that keeps popping up with all of the bond measures on the ballot: voters see the price tag and shy away, and all of the bond measures cancel one another out.

The article cites the two most recent polls on Proposition 84 (Field Poll and PPIC) to demonstrate that the measure is struggling at anywhere between 40% and 50% support, which is not likely to be a strong enough showing for passage, despite endorsements from Arnold Schwarzenegger, Dianne Feinstein, Antonio Villaraigosa, and other heavyweights.

An October 20 article in the Capital Press Agricultural Weekly, an industry newspaper, notes that Proposition 84 would have more support from California agricultural interests if it were more of a water resource measure and less of a parks-and-recreation measure. Nonetheless, the measure would generate an estimated 1 million to 1.2 million acre feet of water statewide, and it would provide $100 million for the restoration of salmon fisheries on the San Joaquin River below Fresno’s Friant Dam.

According to the Polimetrix poll that was cited in an earlier post, Propositions 85 and 88 are faltering, with 51-42% opposing the parental notification measure and 60-31% opposing the education parcel tax. Proposition 89, the campaign finance reform measure supported primarily by the California Nurses’ Association, is also in trouble, with 52-35% opposing it.

Propositions 86 and 87 are apparently doing surprisingly well, given the amount of money that has been spent by opponents of each measure. Proposition 86 has 49-47% support and Proposition 87 has 49-44% support.

Bill Bradley, looking at a poll just released by the Public Policy Institute of California, observes on his blog this morning that the infrastructure measures are in trouble. The governor and many major state lawmakers and advocacy groups have gone up and down the state promoting and stumping for the measures. But none of the measures has increased its support in any significant way.

Support for Proposition 1B is stuck at 51-38%. Proposition 1C is at 56-34%, Proposition 1D is at 51-39%, and Proposition 1E is at 53-36%. Proposition 84, the water safety initiative, is well below the margin needed for passage, with 42% supporting it and 43% opposing it. As Bradley points out, even worse news for the measure’s supporters is that support for the measures among Democrats and independent voters, who are traditional supporters of bond expenditures, is far short of what it should be.

The PPIC polling data seem to suggest that voters are supportive of the concept of bond expenditures in general, but wary of the specific measures that appear on this year’s ballot. 58% of likely voters say that the $43 billion total that the bond measures, if implemented, would require is too costly. Focusing specifically on Proposition 1D, 87% of likely voters consider state spending on improvements in school facilities to be important for their individual communities, but support for that measure is essentially unchanged from last month.

A George Skelton piece in today’s Los Angeles Times notes that despite Schwarzenegger’s popularity, and despite several carefully orchestrated appearances at charter schools and Delta levees, he hasn’t been able to drum up much support for the infrastructure measures. Skelton surmises that if the bonds flop at the polls, it could take some of the luster off the projected Schwarzenegger re-election landslide.

Robert Salladay of the Los Angeles Times and Shane Goldmacher at The California Observer blog today both cite a new poll by J. Moore Methods gauging support for Propositions 1A-1E.

The poll shows all five measures are holding on to slim majority support or close to it. Proposition 1A has the highest support at 56-21%. Proposition 1E follows close behind at 55-31%. The other three bonds don’t fare quite as well. Proposition 1C is at 54-32%, 1D is at 52-34%, and 1B looks least likely to pass, with 50-36% support.

As Bill Bradley notes on his blog, the fact that the measures are stabilized at or slightly above 50% support is no guarantee of success. He cites what happened to the Rob Reiner-sponsored Proposition 82, which would have funded preschool for every child in California, and to Proposition 81, the 2006 library bond measure. Both looked like sure bets to pass according to most polls taken before the election; both failed to pass. (Proposition 82 in particular lost by a startlingly wide margin, 61-39%).

As Bradley observes:

While the measures are there to be won, they are also in dangerous territory. Finance-related initiatives that are hovering at or around 50% two weeks before a California election usually lose.