California Votes: The 2002 Governor's Race & The Recall That Made History
California Votes: The 2002 Governor's Race & The Recall That Made History
Gerald C. Lubenow, ed., 273 pages, Book #4105, $24.95
CONTENTS
I. Setting the Scene: Pollsters, the Press and the Public, Media and Money
Chapter 1. The Voters-How Does the Public View Campaigns?
Presenters: Mark Baldassare and Bruce Cain
Moderator: Darry Sragow
Discussant: Phil Trounstine
Chapter 2. The Pollsters-Polling in the Governor's Race
Analysis by Mark Baldassare, Mark DiCamillo, and Susan Pinkus
Chapter 3. The Consultants-Is Politics Being Done In by Spin?
Moderators: Dan Borenstein and Mervin Field
Discussants: Mark Baldassare, David Binder, Mark DiCamillo, Steve Kinney, and Susan Pinkus
Chapter 4. The Media-Would Meaningful Debates Make a Difference?
Presenter: Darshan Goux
Moderators: Dave Lesher and Susan Rasky
Discussants: Kam Kuwata, Mary Hughes, Debra Saunders, and Bill Whalen
Chapter 5. The Money
Part 1: Pay for Play - Dan Morain
Part 2: Keeping Up With the Simons, and the Checchis, and the Huffingtons, and ... - Karen Getman
II. The Primary Campaign
Chapter 6. The Unmaking of Richard Riordan
Introduction: Mark Barabak
The Moderators: Mark Barabak and Amy Chance
The Campaign Panelists:
Jones Campaign: Rob Lapsley, Ed Rollins, Sean Walsh
Riordan Campaign: Kevin Spillane
Simon Campaign: Jeff Flint, Ron Rogers, Sal Russo
Davis Campaign: David Doak, Larry Grisolano, Tom O'Donnell, Garry South, Ben Tulchin
III. The General Election Campaign
Chapter 7. An Unhappy Electorate Opts for Davis
Introduction: Carla Marinucci
The Moderators: Carla Marinucci and Randy Shandobil
The Campaign Panelists:
Davis Campaign: David Doak, Larry Grisolano, Tom O'Donnell, Garry South, Ben Tulchin
Simon Campaign: Jeff Flint, Ron Rogers, Sal Russo
IV. The Recall
Chapter 8. An Antipolitician, Anti-establishment Groundswell Elected the Candidate of Change
Introduction: Susan Rasky
The Moderators: Dan Borenstein and Amy Chance
The Panelists:
Mark Abernathy
David Gilliard
Sal Russo
Steve Smith
Carroll Wills
Chapter 9. The Legal Challenges
Moderator: Karen Getman
The Panelists:
Steve Coony
Tom Hiltachk
Robin Johansen
Tom Knox
Mark Rosenbaum
Chapter 10. The Race to Replace Gray Davis
The Moderators: Mark Barabak and Carla Marinucci
The Campaign Panelists:
Bustamante Campaign: Richie Ross
Camejo Campaign: Tyler Snortum-Phelps
Davis Campaign: Larry Grisolano, Garry South
McClintock Campaign: John Feliz
Schwarzenegger Campaign: Don Sipple, Sean Walsh
Simon Campaign: Wayne Johnson
Appendices
Appendix 1: Candidates' Top 10 Sources of Campaign Funds
Appendix 2: Candidates' The 2002 General Election Results by County
Appendix 3: Attorney General Bill Lockyer-Why I Voted for Arnold
Appendix 4: 1998 Gubernatorial Election Results
Appendix 5: 2002 Gubernatorial Election Results
Appendix 6: Recall Litigation Chart
Appendix 7: Recall Election Results
Preface
After the 2002 California governor's race, as we have following every gubernatorial election since 1990, the Institute of Governmental Studies held a conference on campus in early January 2003 to review the race and analyze the results. Once again, we assembled all the key players-the campaign managers and consultants, the pollsters and strategists, the media managers and the money people, and, of course, the press. And once again, the result was a frank and candid exposition of politics as it is played at the highest level. As IGS Director Bruce Cain observed at the start of the conference, "Even though some of it is familiar, we've discovered that with the passage of time people tend to be more willing to speak frankly about the reasons why they did what they did in the heat of the battle, and we have learned a lot of extraordinary things about how decisions are made." As we had done following the 1990, 1994, and 1998 races, we planned to produce a volume on the 2002 gubernatorial election based on the conference. But through the spring, as we were editing the manuscript, an effort was launched to recall Governor Gray Davis. And as our editing progressed, so did the recall effort. About the time we were ready to send the book to press, it became clear that the recall effort would reach the ballot and, quite possibly, undo the results of the election.
We decided to hold up publication and include the recall as the final chapters in the book. The result is a publication as unique as the recall itself: a book that combines an in-depth look at the 2002 election that put Gray Davis in the governorship with an analysis of the recall election that plucked him from office less than a year later. Reading the two in juxtaposition, one is struck by a sense that the recall's success and Davis' failure were almost inevitable.
The picture that emerges of the election of 2002 reflects an electorate in the winter of its discontent. The $100 million election, one panelist noted, broke all previous records for spending and generated the lowest voter turnout and the largest number of third-party gubernatorial candidate votes in the state's history. Polling showed that a huge cohort of voters remained undecided until the last minute before ultimately opting for minor party candidates. Dissatisfaction was endemic in California, not only with the candidates, but with the campaigns they ran.
"A hallmark for this survey," PPIC's Mark Baldassare told the January conference of a poll done in collaboration with IGS, "was the lack of enthusiasm the voters had for this election, and specifically for this set of candidates. . . . Voters told us they felt that campaigns and elections in California were on a downward spiral." PPIC's findings, added Baldassare, showed, "Overwhelming disgust with negative campaigning." Gray Davis may have been the last man standing in 2002, but he was mortally wounded. He had won with 1.3 million fewer votes than he received in 1998, narrowly edging an inept and inexperienced opponent who had run a terrible campaign. Bruce Cain told the January conference, "I know from people that were with Gray Davis on election night sitting there as he watched the returns and he watched the commentary, and he was massively depressed by what he was hearing-massively depressed."
Perhaps never before in California history had a candidate been so deeply despised by the voters who had just elected him to office. Many observers seriously questioned his ability to govern. Poll after poll showed that Californians felt their political process was badly broken.
Many voters felt they had been robbed of a reasonable choice by Davis's meddling in the Republican primary to defeat Richard Riordan. "Davis was extremely vulnerable due to his low job-performance ratings and his poor image ratings with the public," observed California Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, "but Simon was never really seen by voters outside his party as a credible alternative to Davis." Republican pollster Steve Kinney agreed, "What I was seeing was so much disgust in our polling. They didn't like either candidate; they didn't like either campaign."
That mood of political negativity reflected a more pervasive sense of foreboding about the economy, the state budget, and almost every aspect of life in the once Golden State that only grew worse as the year and the recall progressed. "How Low Can We Go?" asked the headline on a statewide survey released in August 2003, by the Public Policy Institute of California. "Recall Reflects New Depths of Pessimism in California."
Shortly after the recall qualified, the yes side opened a wide lead and the margin never narrowed. The result was a massive vote of no confidence in Gray Davis. Democratic Attorney General Bill Lockyer chose Berkeley's October recall review to announce that even he had voted for Schwarzenegger. "You know what Arnold represented for me?" he said. "I looked at the list; it was a crappy list. And he represented for me what he did for others-hope, change, reform, opportunity, upbeat, problem solving. I want that. I'm tired of transactional, cynical, deal-making politics."
So, according to the experts at our recall review, are an overwhelming majority of California voters. With the ascendance of Arnold Schwarzenegger, the mood of Californians seemed to rebound. But whether he is that son of York who can end the winter of our political discontent remains to be seen.
Gerald C. Lubenow
University of California, Berkeley